The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index continued to rise over the past 24 hours on surfacing news that the government was coming closer to making a deal to push off the pending debt ceiling.
In yesterday’s NY session, the US Dollar rallied temporarily as the FOMC minutes from the September meeting announced that the decision to not start taper was a close call.
However, as the market gave the minutes closer analysis, it decided that they didn’t add anything new to the taper conversation and the greenback retraced all of the earlier gains in the major pairs making up the index.
Overnight, the US Dollar rallied to a new weekly high. It’s possible that the move higher was a reaction to rumors of a later-confirmed story that the House republicans were getting ready to support a bill to push off the debt ceiling. However, most of those gains were unwound through the rest of the Tokyo and London sessions, despite the confirmation of the rumor as NY traders came online.
Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Friday, September 27, 2013
EUR/USD tug-of-war ahead of central banks while awaiting DC to take a decision
Special winds of recovery in the Eurozone have fueled the Euro in the last days, but its indecision is latent as investors are waiting for Washington developments on debt ceiling and next week big events. Despite all the noise of these days, the EUR/USD closed a 5-pip negative Doji candle in the week.
The biggest topic this week was the lack of agreement in debt ceiling. It seems lawmakers will wait until the 11th hour in Monday, but the problem is that it matches with the end of the month and quarter. Many investors, traders and portfolio managers are worrying on it as the Dow and the S&P 500 closed its sixth negative session of the last seven.
The uncertainty is the topic in the currency markets too, as investors prefer more hints in the Washington battle and, despite recent good economic data, about the possibility of further easing by the ECB. "In his recent speeches, Draghi has been teasing the markets with hints of further easing," comments the BabyPips.com FX-Men Team. "This is a bit surprising, considering the euro zone has recently shown notable improvements in consumer confidence and overall economic activity."
Answering this topic, BabyPips affirms that "the central bank is probably just trying to maximize their current easing programs by keeping a lid on longer-term rates." In this line, FXstreet.com's analyst Katarzyna Komorowska shares in her ECB and BoE previous that her sources "expect the European Central Bank to maintain monetary policy unchanged at the next meeting.”
In this framework, the EUR/USD's buying interest is losing momentum according to the Forecast Poll as experts expect more gains the next week. However, market players expect Euro to Dollar exchange rate to lose ground in the long term.
In the short term, FXstreet.com Chief Analyst comments that "the bearish case looks worse ahead of a new month start: next week, the ECB economic policy meeting and the US employment data, will surely provide more reasons to buy the pair than to sell it." As for technical levels, "failure to overcome 1.3570 and steady losses below mentioned 1.3460 should put the pair in downside corrective mode, eyeing then 1.3280 area, where the pair will finally fill the weekly opening gap from September 15th," concludes Bednarik.
The GBP/USD advanced on Friday and it closed above the 1.6100 area for first time since the Fed's non-taper day. It was the fourth week of gains in a row as the GBP/USD has won around 700 pips in a month and 1300 pips since July 6 when the pair posted its double bottom.
The USD/JPY lost all its Thursday’s gains on Friday as the pair declined from 99.00 to close at 98.25. The AUD/USD tested the 0.9300 area today after extending declines from September 19th highs at 0.9520.
Main headlines in the American session
August US Personal spending 0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m
US: PCE rose 1.2% YoY in August
US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slides to 77.5 in September
Austria keeps the AAA rating, outlook stable
Dudley: Time between end of QE and first rate hike ‘could easily be a number of years’
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Traders dump bets on the dollar after the Fed
Wall Street declines on Friday and closes its first negative week in four
(Fxstreet)
The biggest topic this week was the lack of agreement in debt ceiling. It seems lawmakers will wait until the 11th hour in Monday, but the problem is that it matches with the end of the month and quarter. Many investors, traders and portfolio managers are worrying on it as the Dow and the S&P 500 closed its sixth negative session of the last seven.
The uncertainty is the topic in the currency markets too, as investors prefer more hints in the Washington battle and, despite recent good economic data, about the possibility of further easing by the ECB. "In his recent speeches, Draghi has been teasing the markets with hints of further easing," comments the BabyPips.com FX-Men Team. "This is a bit surprising, considering the euro zone has recently shown notable improvements in consumer confidence and overall economic activity."
Answering this topic, BabyPips affirms that "the central bank is probably just trying to maximize their current easing programs by keeping a lid on longer-term rates." In this line, FXstreet.com's analyst Katarzyna Komorowska shares in her ECB and BoE previous that her sources "expect the European Central Bank to maintain monetary policy unchanged at the next meeting.”
In this framework, the EUR/USD's buying interest is losing momentum according to the Forecast Poll as experts expect more gains the next week. However, market players expect Euro to Dollar exchange rate to lose ground in the long term.
In the short term, FXstreet.com Chief Analyst comments that "the bearish case looks worse ahead of a new month start: next week, the ECB economic policy meeting and the US employment data, will surely provide more reasons to buy the pair than to sell it." As for technical levels, "failure to overcome 1.3570 and steady losses below mentioned 1.3460 should put the pair in downside corrective mode, eyeing then 1.3280 area, where the pair will finally fill the weekly opening gap from September 15th," concludes Bednarik.
The GBP/USD advanced on Friday and it closed above the 1.6100 area for first time since the Fed's non-taper day. It was the fourth week of gains in a row as the GBP/USD has won around 700 pips in a month and 1300 pips since July 6 when the pair posted its double bottom.
The USD/JPY lost all its Thursday’s gains on Friday as the pair declined from 99.00 to close at 98.25. The AUD/USD tested the 0.9300 area today after extending declines from September 19th highs at 0.9520.
Main headlines in the American session
August US Personal spending 0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m
US: PCE rose 1.2% YoY in August
US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slides to 77.5 in September
Austria keeps the AAA rating, outlook stable
Dudley: Time between end of QE and first rate hike ‘could easily be a number of years’
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Traders dump bets on the dollar after the Fed
Wall Street declines on Friday and closes its first negative week in four
(Fxstreet)
Sunday, August 18, 2013
EUR/GBP showing weakness below 0.8550
EUR/GBP showing weakness below 0.8550
The EUR/GBP foreign exchange cross rate is last trading unchanged from previous weekly close Friday at 0.8527, off initial session highs at 0.8539 printed on Euro strength.
EUR/GBP targets an 0.85 break
With a completely blank economic agenda for the next London session ahead, “I like the sell-rally strategy in EUR/GBP now that we are below the previous pivot at .8600,” said FXWW founder Sean Lee. According to IFRMarkets analyst Andrew Spencer, the cross EUR/GBP “targets an 0.85 break.” Spencer points out that trend is “backed by string of positive UK data.”
EUR/GBP key technical levels
Immediate support to the downside for EUR/GBP lies at Wednesday's/Friday's lows 0.8527, followed by last Thursday's weekly lows at 0.8504, and July 03 lows at 0.8482. To the upside, closest resistance shows at recent session and weekly highs at 0.8540, followed by Friday's highs at 0.8554, and August 07/12 lows at 0.85
Sources
FXstreet (Barcelona)
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
New Zealand data due up at 0100GMT – business confidence and activity outlook
New Zealand data due up at 0100GMT – business confidence and activity outlook
ANZ Business Confidence for July: prior was 50.1 Also, ANZ Activity Outlook for July: prior was 45.0
ANZ Business Confidence for July: prior was 50.1 Also, ANZ Activity Outlook for July: prior was 45.0
Everything you need to know about oil prices right now
In an effort to keep it simple:
Crude rallied to $109 for some reason
That reason wasn’t global growth, which the IMF estimates at 2.2% this year
Supplies aren’t especially tight
I’m looking for crude to fall back to $99, which is the convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally and the trendline/old high. The risk is a spike higher due to a hurricane.
Oil shorts are also another way to bet on US dollar strength.
SEC sues Spaniards over insider trading
SEC sues Spaniards over insider trading
By Kara Scannell in New York and Tobias Buck in Madrid
US securities regulators brought a new round of cases of alleged insider trading ahead of BHP Billiton’s failed bid for PotashCorp filing fraud charges against a former high-ranking executive at Banco Santander and a former Spanish judge.
The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Cedric Cañas Maillard, a Spanish citizen and former executive adviser to Santander’s chief executive, and his friend Julio Marín Ugedo, a former judge in Spain, for allegedly making a total of $1m in illegal profits after trading in advance of the planned 2010 takeover.
The lawsuit, filed in New York, is the latest case where the SEC has charged individuals based outside of the US for illegal stock trading. Earlier this year the SEC sued a Thai trader with buying securities of Smithfield Foods days before the US pork producer announced its takeover by China’s Shuanghui International. That case is ongoing.
The SEC has previously charged two traders with insider trading around the BHP takeover bid. The agency settled with one of them, a former Santander analyst, who agreed to pay $625,000, without admitting or denying wrongdoing. But a US judge threw out its case against the second man, a Spanish citizen, for lack of evidence. The SEC said its investigation is ongoing.
Santander declined to comment. The bank launched an internal investigation in 2010 and by January 2011 suspended Mr Cañas after allegations he had access to confidential information about the takeover bid, the SEC said. He is no longer with the bank. The SEC is seeking disgorgement of profits and penalty from both men, neither of them could be reached for comment.
According to the SEC, Mr Cañas allegedly learnt about the takeover attempt after BHP contacted Santander to line up financing for the acquisition in August 2010. He allegedly bought the equivalent of 30,000 shares of Potash stock by using contracts for difference, highly leveraged securities that trade outside of the US and which closely track securities listed on US exchanges, the SEC said.
If the price of the CFD rises, the buyer of the contract is paid the difference by the seller. By buying the contract, Mr Cañas was betting Potash shares would rise in value.
The SEC alleges Mr Cañas spoke, text messaged and emailed his childhood friend Mr Marin multiple times during the period of the takeover. Mr Marin “admitted that he discussed investing in Potash with Cañas in August 2010 before purchasing Potash stock,” the SEC alleged.
Mr Marin allegedly began buying shares of Potash the day after Santander’s executive committee approved $10.5bn in financing for BHP. He made $87,132 from his trades, the SEC said.
By Kara Scannell in New York and Tobias Buck in Madrid
US securities regulators brought a new round of cases of alleged insider trading ahead of BHP Billiton’s failed bid for PotashCorp filing fraud charges against a former high-ranking executive at Banco Santander and a former Spanish judge.
The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Cedric Cañas Maillard, a Spanish citizen and former executive adviser to Santander’s chief executive, and his friend Julio Marín Ugedo, a former judge in Spain, for allegedly making a total of $1m in illegal profits after trading in advance of the planned 2010 takeover.
The lawsuit, filed in New York, is the latest case where the SEC has charged individuals based outside of the US for illegal stock trading. Earlier this year the SEC sued a Thai trader with buying securities of Smithfield Foods days before the US pork producer announced its takeover by China’s Shuanghui International. That case is ongoing.
The SEC has previously charged two traders with insider trading around the BHP takeover bid. The agency settled with one of them, a former Santander analyst, who agreed to pay $625,000, without admitting or denying wrongdoing. But a US judge threw out its case against the second man, a Spanish citizen, for lack of evidence. The SEC said its investigation is ongoing.
Santander declined to comment. The bank launched an internal investigation in 2010 and by January 2011 suspended Mr Cañas after allegations he had access to confidential information about the takeover bid, the SEC said. He is no longer with the bank. The SEC is seeking disgorgement of profits and penalty from both men, neither of them could be reached for comment.
According to the SEC, Mr Cañas allegedly learnt about the takeover attempt after BHP contacted Santander to line up financing for the acquisition in August 2010. He allegedly bought the equivalent of 30,000 shares of Potash stock by using contracts for difference, highly leveraged securities that trade outside of the US and which closely track securities listed on US exchanges, the SEC said.
If the price of the CFD rises, the buyer of the contract is paid the difference by the seller. By buying the contract, Mr Cañas was betting Potash shares would rise in value.
The SEC alleges Mr Cañas spoke, text messaged and emailed his childhood friend Mr Marin multiple times during the period of the takeover. Mr Marin “admitted that he discussed investing in Potash with Cañas in August 2010 before purchasing Potash stock,” the SEC alleged.
Mr Marin allegedly began buying shares of Potash the day after Santander’s executive committee approved $10.5bn in financing for BHP. He made $87,132 from his trades, the SEC said.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Flash: What does the EUR/USD have to offer? – UBS and Commerzbank
The euro is inching higher on Thursday, recovering ground lost after the USD bull run on Wednesday in response to US data above estimates. Ahead in the day, the German IFO indicator will be the main risk event in the bloc, as the EUR will look to find more solid ground to extend the recent rally.
Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu, Strategists at UBS, commented, “With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052”. It is worth noting that the bank holds a bullish outlook on the pair.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair’s “current strength is expected to terminate ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275… The market should react back to 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low”.
Credits:
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -
Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu, Strategists at UBS, commented, “With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052”. It is worth noting that the bank holds a bullish outlook on the pair.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair’s “current strength is expected to terminate ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275… The market should react back to 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low”.
Credits:
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -
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