New Zealand data due up at 0100GMT – business confidence and activity outlook
ANZ Business Confidence for July: prior was 50.1 Also, ANZ Activity Outlook for July: prior was 45.0
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Everything you need to know about oil prices right now
In an effort to keep it simple:
Crude rallied to $109 for some reason
That reason wasn’t global growth, which the IMF estimates at 2.2% this year
Supplies aren’t especially tight
I’m looking for crude to fall back to $99, which is the convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally and the trendline/old high. The risk is a spike higher due to a hurricane.
Oil shorts are also another way to bet on US dollar strength.
SEC sues Spaniards over insider trading
SEC sues Spaniards over insider trading
By Kara Scannell in New York and Tobias Buck in Madrid
US securities regulators brought a new round of cases of alleged insider trading ahead of BHP Billiton’s failed bid for PotashCorp filing fraud charges against a former high-ranking executive at Banco Santander and a former Spanish judge.
The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Cedric Cañas Maillard, a Spanish citizen and former executive adviser to Santander’s chief executive, and his friend Julio Marín Ugedo, a former judge in Spain, for allegedly making a total of $1m in illegal profits after trading in advance of the planned 2010 takeover.
The lawsuit, filed in New York, is the latest case where the SEC has charged individuals based outside of the US for illegal stock trading. Earlier this year the SEC sued a Thai trader with buying securities of Smithfield Foods days before the US pork producer announced its takeover by China’s Shuanghui International. That case is ongoing.
The SEC has previously charged two traders with insider trading around the BHP takeover bid. The agency settled with one of them, a former Santander analyst, who agreed to pay $625,000, without admitting or denying wrongdoing. But a US judge threw out its case against the second man, a Spanish citizen, for lack of evidence. The SEC said its investigation is ongoing.
Santander declined to comment. The bank launched an internal investigation in 2010 and by January 2011 suspended Mr Cañas after allegations he had access to confidential information about the takeover bid, the SEC said. He is no longer with the bank. The SEC is seeking disgorgement of profits and penalty from both men, neither of them could be reached for comment.
According to the SEC, Mr Cañas allegedly learnt about the takeover attempt after BHP contacted Santander to line up financing for the acquisition in August 2010. He allegedly bought the equivalent of 30,000 shares of Potash stock by using contracts for difference, highly leveraged securities that trade outside of the US and which closely track securities listed on US exchanges, the SEC said.
If the price of the CFD rises, the buyer of the contract is paid the difference by the seller. By buying the contract, Mr Cañas was betting Potash shares would rise in value.
The SEC alleges Mr Cañas spoke, text messaged and emailed his childhood friend Mr Marin multiple times during the period of the takeover. Mr Marin “admitted that he discussed investing in Potash with Cañas in August 2010 before purchasing Potash stock,” the SEC alleged.
Mr Marin allegedly began buying shares of Potash the day after Santander’s executive committee approved $10.5bn in financing for BHP. He made $87,132 from his trades, the SEC said.
By Kara Scannell in New York and Tobias Buck in Madrid
US securities regulators brought a new round of cases of alleged insider trading ahead of BHP Billiton’s failed bid for PotashCorp filing fraud charges against a former high-ranking executive at Banco Santander and a former Spanish judge.
The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Cedric Cañas Maillard, a Spanish citizen and former executive adviser to Santander’s chief executive, and his friend Julio Marín Ugedo, a former judge in Spain, for allegedly making a total of $1m in illegal profits after trading in advance of the planned 2010 takeover.
The lawsuit, filed in New York, is the latest case where the SEC has charged individuals based outside of the US for illegal stock trading. Earlier this year the SEC sued a Thai trader with buying securities of Smithfield Foods days before the US pork producer announced its takeover by China’s Shuanghui International. That case is ongoing.
The SEC has previously charged two traders with insider trading around the BHP takeover bid. The agency settled with one of them, a former Santander analyst, who agreed to pay $625,000, without admitting or denying wrongdoing. But a US judge threw out its case against the second man, a Spanish citizen, for lack of evidence. The SEC said its investigation is ongoing.
Santander declined to comment. The bank launched an internal investigation in 2010 and by January 2011 suspended Mr Cañas after allegations he had access to confidential information about the takeover bid, the SEC said. He is no longer with the bank. The SEC is seeking disgorgement of profits and penalty from both men, neither of them could be reached for comment.
According to the SEC, Mr Cañas allegedly learnt about the takeover attempt after BHP contacted Santander to line up financing for the acquisition in August 2010. He allegedly bought the equivalent of 30,000 shares of Potash stock by using contracts for difference, highly leveraged securities that trade outside of the US and which closely track securities listed on US exchanges, the SEC said.
If the price of the CFD rises, the buyer of the contract is paid the difference by the seller. By buying the contract, Mr Cañas was betting Potash shares would rise in value.
The SEC alleges Mr Cañas spoke, text messaged and emailed his childhood friend Mr Marin multiple times during the period of the takeover. Mr Marin “admitted that he discussed investing in Potash with Cañas in August 2010 before purchasing Potash stock,” the SEC alleged.
Mr Marin allegedly began buying shares of Potash the day after Santander’s executive committee approved $10.5bn in financing for BHP. He made $87,132 from his trades, the SEC said.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Flash: What does the EUR/USD have to offer? – UBS and Commerzbank
The euro is inching higher on Thursday, recovering ground lost after the USD bull run on Wednesday in response to US data above estimates. Ahead in the day, the German IFO indicator will be the main risk event in the bloc, as the EUR will look to find more solid ground to extend the recent rally.
Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu, Strategists at UBS, commented, “With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052”. It is worth noting that the bank holds a bullish outlook on the pair.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair’s “current strength is expected to terminate ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275… The market should react back to 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low”.
Credits:
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -
Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu, Strategists at UBS, commented, “With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052”. It is worth noting that the bank holds a bullish outlook on the pair.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested the pair’s “current strength is expected to terminate ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275… The market should react back to 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low”.
Credits:
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Todays Top Financial News
TGIF and all that…..
There’s little to excite this morning on the data front….
(All times GMT)
0430 Japanese June All industry activity index, exp 1.3% m/m
0500 Japanese May leading economic index, last 107.7, coincident index last 105.1
0600 German June PPI, exp flat m/m, 0.6% y/y
0800 Italian May Industrial sales last 0.6% m/m, -7.2% y/y
0800 Italian May Industrial
There’s little to excite this morning on the data front….
(All times GMT)
0430 Japanese June All industry activity index, exp 1.3% m/m
0500 Japanese May leading economic index, last 107.7, coincident index last 105.1
0600 German June PPI, exp flat m/m, 0.6% y/y
0800 Italian May Industrial sales last 0.6% m/m, -7.2% y/y
0800 Italian May Industrial
Monday, July 8, 2013
Breaking News: Draghi says higher rates aren’t Warranted Presently
Draghi says higher rates aren’t warranted currently And;
- Hard to disagree with BIS that low rates for long pose risks
- ECB shares principle of objective of FTT
- FTT has many undesired consequences for monetary policy
EUR/USD on the up as Draghi puts “low rates” and “risk” in one sentence.
How “forward” is forward guidance then and when does the risk enter?
EUR/USD clawing back from Fridays losses. Now at 1.2870 from 1.2842
USD/JPY to Challenge Topside.
FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY is holding up above 101.00, offering a key base for the week ahead.
USD/JPY has reached a high in this morning’s trade of 101.38. Since then, the pair have edged away towards the handle before finding support and taking a walk back to the 101.20’s. The market has been more stable after least weeks, turbulence. Ahead of BoJ, Fed minutes and second tier US data releases coming up later on in the week.
USD/JPY to challenge topside
Karen Jones, Chief Analyst at Commerzbank, said USD/JPY is eroding the top of the 101.17 cloud, and also the previous uptrend, which now acts as resistance at 101.53. This suggests to her that there is unfinished business on the topside and suggest that the 103.74 May high will be challenged.
GBP/USD hanging around 1.4900
GBP/USD struggling around 1.4900
GBP/USD managed to hold above the 1.4855 support zone and briefly rose above the 1.4900 mark to hit a daily high of 1.4912. However, the pound lacked momentum to extend the recovery and eased back to the psychological level.
GBP/USD levels
At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.4890/1.4900 zone, still up 0.1% on the day. In terms of technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.4912 (daily high) and 1.5000 (psychological level) while on the downside, supports could be found at 1.4855 (Jul 5 low) and 1.4832 (Mar 12 low).
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