In an effort to keep it simple:
Crude rallied to $109 for some reason
That reason wasn’t global growth, which the IMF estimates at 2.2% this year
Supplies aren’t especially tight
I’m looking for crude to fall back to $99, which is the convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally and the trendline/old high. The risk is a spike higher due to a hurricane.
Oil shorts are also another way to bet on US dollar strength.
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