Daily Forecast: AUD/USD ; USD/CAD ; USD/JPY ; USD/CHF

Daily Forecast: AUD/USD ; USD/CAD ; USD/JPY ; USD/CHF

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AUD/USD drops sharply to as low as 1.0037 so far today. The strong break of 1.0115 indicates strong downside momentum. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall would now target 61.8% retracement of 0.9588 to 1.0624 at 0.9984 and below. On the upside, above 1.0154 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. There is no clear sign of breakout yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9588. Meanwhile, break of 1.0624 will be an early sign of up trend resumption and should bring retest of 1.1079 high next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0006; (P) 1.0130; (R1) 1.0214; ...

USD/CAD recovered strongly from 1.0113 and bullish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD argues that a short term bottom in place. Stronger rebound could be seen. But break of 1.0132 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, deeper decline is still mildly in favor. Below 1.0013 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9633 to 1.0341 at 0.9903. Though, above 1.0132 will turn focus back to 1.0293 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.0656 are viewed as a correction pattern, no change in this view. The current development raised the possibility that such consolidation is still in progress. Another fall could have just started but downside should be contained above 0.9406 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1.0341 is needed to signal upside momentum. Or, we'd expect more range trading between 0.9406/1.0341.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0024; (P) 1.0056; (R1) 1.0100; ...

USD/JPY rises to as high as 101.19 so far today and has finally took out 100 psychological level. Recent up trend has resumed and current rise should now extend to 161.8% projection of 77.13 to 96.70 from 92.56 at 104.65 next. On the downside, break of 99.45 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 should have already completed at 75.56. Stronger medium term rally could be seen back towards 101.65 key support turned resistance level. We'll see how USD/JPY responds at around 100 to judge the underlying medium term momentum for stronger up trend. Sustained break there should at least push USD/JPY through 61.8% retracement of 124.13 to 75.56 at 105.57. Meanwhile, break of 92.56 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 99.24; (P) 100.01; (R1) 101.38; ...

USD/CHF rises further to as high as 0.9525 so far today and the break of 0.9498 argues that consolidation from 0.9566 is already completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9566 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 0.9021. On the downside, below 0.9436 will turn bias neutral and mix up the near term outlook again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and should have completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Price actions from 0.9971 are expected to develop into a sideway pattern. That is, rise from 0.9021 would have a test on 0.9971 and have another fall before resuming the larger up trend. However, break of 0.9021 support will suggest that fall from 0.9971 is developing into to deep correction that instead, that should reach 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9377; (P) 0.9437; (R1) 0.9542; ...